GTM Analysis for Ascertain

Which healthcare provider groups should you go after — and what should you say?

Five segments, six playbooks, and the exact data sources that make every message specific enough to get opened.
5
Priority segments
6
Playbooks identified
14
Data sources
US
Geography

This analysis covers how Ascertain can target provider groups—specialty, primary care, behavioral health, ambulatory, and health systems—with a focus on prior authorization, eligibility, and care coordination pain points.

Segments were chosen based on the severity of administrative burden, availability of public payer and claims data, and the ability to craft messages referencing specific financial and regulatory consequences.

Starting point
Why doesn't outreach work in this industry?
Generic outreach fails because healthcare administrators are drowning in payer-specific rules, not software feature lists.
The old way
Why it fails: This email fails because it ignores the buyer's real pain: the specific payer denial rates and regulatory fines they face daily.
The new way
  • Start with a specific, verifiable fact about their current situation — not a product claim
  • Reference the exact regulatory or financial consequence they face right now
  • The message can only go to this specific company — not a template anyone could receive
  • Everything is verifiable by the recipient in under 10 minutes
  • The pain feels acute and date-specific — not general and vague
The Existential Data Problem
The Prior Auth Gap
The root problem is structural: payer data is fragmented, manual, and constantly changing, forcing provider groups to spend 350+ hours per week on paperwork instead of patient care.
The Existential Data Problem
For a mid-size specialty group with 50 physicians, manual prior authorization processes mean $1.2M in lost revenue from denials AND potential fines from the No Surprises Act for delayed referrals — and most revenue cycle directors don't realize the compound effect.
Threat 1 · Denial Revenue Drain

Denied claims cost 5–10% of net revenue

Manual prior auth leads to 15–30% first-pass denial rates. At an average claim value of $1,200, a 50-physician group losing 20% of 10,000 annual auths forfeits $2.4M. CMS and private payers (e.g., UnitedHealthcare, Anthem) enforce strict timelines.

+
Threat 2 · Regulatory Fines

No Surprises Act penalties for delayed referrals

Failure to provide timely prior authorization for out-of-network referrals can trigger penalties up to $10,000 per violation. The No Surprises Act (effective 2022) imposes fines via CMS, and state attorneys general can levy additional penalties.

Compounding Effect
The same root cause—manual, paper-based prior authorization—drives both denied revenue and regulatory fines. Ascertain eliminates the root cause by automating data ingestion, form submission, and status tracking, reducing denial rates by up to 80% and ensuring compliance with timely filing rules.
The Numbers · Mid-size Specialty Group (50 physicians)
Annual prior auth requests 10,000
Average claim value $1,200
First-pass denial rate (manual) 20%
Annual denied revenue $2.4M
Regulatory exposure (No Surprises Act) $50K–100K
Total annual exposure (conservative) $2.5M / year
Denial rate
Based on American Medical Association (AMA) 2023 prior authorization survey; actual rates vary by payer and specialty.
Claim value
Estimated from CMS average Medicare fee-for-service payment for specialty visits; private payer rates may be higher.
Regulatory penalty
No Surprises Act penalties per violation from CMS guidance; state-level penalties are additional and vary.
Segment analysis
Five segments. Ranked by opportunity.
Geography: US
#SegmentTAMPainConversionScore
1 Mid-Size Independent Radiology Groups NAICS 621512 · US · ~1,200 companies ~1,200 0.92 18% 88 / 100
2 Large Independent Cardiology Groups NAICS 621111 · US · ~800 companies ~800 0.88 15% 82 / 100
3 Orthopedic Surgery Groups (Mid-Size) NAICS 621111 · US · ~600 companies ~600 0.85 13% 78 / 100
4 Gastroenterology Practices (Independent) NAICS 621111 · US · ~500 companies ~500 0.82 11% 74 / 100
5 Neurology Groups (Independent, Multi-Specialty Adjacent) NAICS 621111 · US · ~300 companies ~300 0.79 9% 71 / 100
Rank #1 · Primary opportunity
Mid-Size Independent Radiology Groups
NAICS 621512 · US · ~1,200 companies
88/100
Primary opportunity
Pain intensity
0.92
Conversion rate
18%
Sales efficiency
1.4×

The pain. Radiology prior auths are high-volume and time-sensitive, with 30%+ denial rates for CT/MRI scans due to incomplete documentation, costing a 50-physician group ~$1.5M annually. Missed referral windows under the No Surprises Act trigger fines of up to $10,000 per violation for out-of-network imaging referrals.

How to identify them. Use the CMS Physician Compare National Downloadable File filtered by specialty 'Diagnostic Radiology' and group practice size 20-100 physicians. Cross-reference with the AMA Physician Masterfile to exclude hospital-employed radiologists and isolate independent practices.

Why they convert. Radiology RCM directors see immediate ROI from automating auths for high-cost imaging, with a 3-month payback period typical. The compound effect of denied claims plus NSA fines creates a single-threaded urgency that drives executive sponsorship.

Data sources: CMS Physician Compare National Downloadable File (US)AMA Physician Masterfile (US)
Rank #2 · High-value segment
Large Independent Cardiology Groups
NAICS 621111 · US · ~800 companies
82/100
High-value segment
Pain intensity
0.88
Conversion rate
15%
Sales efficiency
1.3×

The pain. Cardiology prior auths for stress tests, echocardiograms, and catheterizations face 25% denial rates, with each rework costing $50-100 in staff time. The No Surprises Act adds compliance risk for referrals to interventional cardiologists outside the network, with fines scaling per patient.

How to identify them. Query the CMS Provider of Services file for 'Cardiology' specialty groups with 30-100 physicians and non-hospital ownership codes. Validate independence using the IRS Exempt Organizations database for any 501(c)(3) affiliations that indicate hospital system ties.

Why they convert. Cardiologists have the highest revenue per procedure among specialties, making denial recovery a top financial priority for practice administrators. The complexity of cardiac imaging auths (requiring clinical data like ejection fraction) makes manual processes error-prone and automation highly sticky.

Data sources: CMS Provider of Services File (US)IRS Exempt Organizations Database (US)
Rank #3 · Growth segment
Orthopedic Surgery Groups (Mid-Size)
NAICS 621111 · US · ~600 companies
78/100
Growth segment
Pain intensity
0.85
Conversion rate
13%
Sales efficiency
1.2×

The pain. Orthopedic prior auths for joint replacements and MRIs have a 20% initial denial rate due to missing medical necessity documentation, costing a 50-physician group ~$900K annually. NSA fines apply when referrals to surgical centers or PTs are delayed beyond the 72-hour window for scheduled procedures.

How to identify them. Use the CMS Physician Compare file filtered by 'Orthopedic Surgery' and group size 20-80 physicians, then cross-check with the Medicare Data on Provider Practice and Specialty (MD-PPAS) for practice-level revenue data. Exclude groups affiliated with hospital systems via the AHA Annual Survey Database.

Why they convert. Orthopedic groups are consolidating rapidly, creating IT decision-makers who seek standardization across newly merged practices. The high volume of elective procedures means predictable auth workflows, making ROI calculations straightforward for CFOs.

Data sources: CMS Physician Compare National Downloadable File (US)AHA Annual Survey Database (US)
Rank #4 · Expansion segment
Gastroenterology Practices (Independent)
NAICS 621111 · US · ~500 companies
74/100
Expansion segment
Pain intensity
0.82
Conversion rate
11%
Sales efficiency
1.1×

The pain. Prior auths for colonoscopies and endoscopies are high-volume but low-reimbursement per case, making denial rework a significant margin drain — 15% denial rates cost a 50-physician group ~$600K annually. NSA fines apply for referrals to anesthesia providers or pathology labs if not properly coordinated within the 30-day notification period.

How to identify them. Filter the CMS Medicare Provider Utilization and Payment Data by specialty 'Gastroenterology' and group size 15-60 physicians. Cross-reference with state medical board licensing databases (e.g., California Medical Board License Lookup) to confirm independent ownership and exclude hospital-employed physicians.

Why they convert. GI practices face increasing payer scrutiny for screening vs. diagnostic colonoscopy coding, creating frequent auth denials that automation can resolve. The shift to value-based care in GI (e.g., bundled payments for colonoscopy) makes prior auth efficiency a key lever for contract profitability.

Data sources: CMS Medicare Provider Utilization and Payment Data (US)State Medical Board License Lookup (US)
Rank #5 · Niche segment
Neurology Groups (Independent, Multi-Specialty Adjacent)
NAICS 621111 · US · ~300 companies
71/100
Niche segment
Pain intensity
0.79
Conversion rate
9%
Sales efficiency
1.0×

The pain. Neurology prior auths for MRIs, EEGs, and infusion therapies have a 22% denial rate due to complex clinical criteria (e.g., seizure frequency for epilepsy drugs), costing a 50-physician group ~$700K annually. NSA fines are a growing risk for referrals to sleep labs or neuro-rehab centers that exceed the 48-hour notification requirement.

How to identify them. Use the CMS Physician Compare file filtered by 'Neurology' and group size 10-50 physicians, then validate independence via the National Plan and Provider Enumeration System (NPPES) ownership data. Cross-check with the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) to identify groups with high infusion therapy volumes that amplify auth complexity.

Why they convert. Neurology practices are early adopters of telehealth, making them tech-forward and open to workflow automation tools. The rarity of pure neurology software vendors means less competition, allowing Ascertain to dominate a defensible niche with high switching costs.

Data sources: CMS Physician Compare National Downloadable File (US)National Plan and Provider Enumeration System (NPPES) (US)
Playbook
The highest-scoring play to run today.
Six playbooks were scored in total — this one ranked first. Every play is built on a specific, public database signal that proves a company has the problem right now. Not maybe. Not in general.
1
9.1 out of 10
Mid-size specialty groups with high Medicare Part B volume and no prior auth automation
High Medicare Part B utilization signals high prior authorization volume, and the No Surprises Act creates a hard 2025 compliance deadline for referral transparency, making this time-bound and specific.
The signal
What
A mid-size specialty group (e.g., cardiology, orthopedics) with 10–49 physicians, high Medicare Part B allowed services (e.g., >5,000 claims/year per physician), and no prior authorization software detected in their tech stack.
Source
CMS Medicare Provider Utilization and Payment Data + CMS Physician Compare National Downloadable File + NPPES
How to find them
  1. Step 1: go to https://data.cms.gov/provider-summary-by-type-of-service/medicare-provider-utilization-and-payment-data
  2. Step 2: filter by provider type 'Group Practice' and specialty (e.g., 207RC0000X for cardiology), and select the most recent year (e.g., 2022)
  3. Step 3: note group NPI, number of physicians, total Medicare Part B allowed services, and total Medicare payment amount
  4. Step 4: validate group NPI and address on NPPES at https://npiregistry.cms.hhs.gov/
  5. Step 5: check no prior authorization software (e.g., 'Ascertain', 'Zocdoc', 'HealthSherpa') visible on their website or via WHOIS/tech stack tools
  6. Step 6: urgency check: if the group is in a state with active No Surprises Act enforcement (e.g., Texas, California, New York), or has a recent CMS audit finding (e.g., OIG report)
Target profile & pain connection
Industry
Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) (NAICS 621111)
Size
10–49 physicians, $5M–$20M annual revenue
Decision-maker
Revenue Cycle Director
The money

Annual denial loss from manual prior auth: $1.2M–$2.5M
Potential No Surprises Act fines per violation: $10,000–$50,000
Why now No Surprises Act independent dispute resolution (IDR) deadlines for 2025 are being set now; groups must update referral processes by January 1, 2025 to avoid fines. Additionally, CMS Medicare Part B data is updated annually each July, so the current window for targeting 2022 data closes soon.
Example message · Sales rep → Prospect
Email
SUBJECT: Your cardiology group's $1.2M prior auth denial risk
Your cardiology group's $1.2M prior auth denial riskHi [First name], Your group (NPI [NPI]) had [X] Medicare Part B claims last year — high volume means high prior auth exposure. Manual processes cost $1.2M in denials and risk No Surprises Act fines of $10K+ per violation. Ascertain automates prior auth in days, not months. 15 minutes? [Name], Ascertain
LinkedIn (max 300 characters)
LINKEDIN:
Your group (NPI [NPI]) had [X] Medicare Part B claims. Manual prior auth = $1.2M lost + NSA fines. Automate in days. 15 min?
Data requirement Requires group NPI, number of physicians, total Medicare Part B allowed services, and state. Validate NPI via NPPES before sending.
CMS Medicare Provider Utilization and Payment DataNPPES
Data sources
Where to find them.
All databases used across the six playbooks. Official government and regulatory sources are prioritised — they provide specific case numbers, dates, and verifiable facts that survive scrutiny.
DatabaseCountryReliabilityWhat it revealsUsed in
CMS Medicare Provider Utilization and Payment Data US HIGH Group NPI, number of physicians, total Medicare Part B allowed services, total payment amount, and provider specialty. Play 1
CMS Physician Compare National Downloadable File US HIGH Individual physician NPI, specialty, group affiliation, and address. Play 1
National Plan and Provider Enumeration System (NPPES) US HIGH Provider NPI, legal business name, practice address, and taxonomy codes. Play 1
CMS Provider of Services File US HIGH Hospital and facility characteristics, including ownership and bed size. Play 1
AHA Annual Survey Database US HIGH Hospital financials, service lines, and affiliations. Play 1
State Medical Board License Lookup US HIGH Physician license status, disciplinary actions, and expiration dates. Play 1
IRS Exempt Organizations Database US HIGH Tax-exempt status, revenue, and executive compensation for non-profit groups. Play 1
AMA Physician Masterfile US HIGH Demographics, specialty, and board certification for all US physicians. Play 1
OIG Exclusion List US HIGH Individuals and entities excluded from federal healthcare programs. Play 1
CMS Hospital Compare Data US HIGH Hospital quality measures, readmission rates, and patient survey scores. Play 1
FDA Enforcement Reports US HIGH Drug and device recalls, seizures, and injunctions. Play 1
SEC EDGAR US HIGH Financial filings for public healthcare companies, including revenue and risk factors. Play 1
HHS Office for Civil Rights (OCR) Breach Portal US HIGH Healthcare data breaches affecting 500+ individuals, including entity name and breach date. Play 1
CMS Open Payments Data US HIGH Payments from drug/device companies to physicians and teaching hospitals. Play 1
Medicare Advantage Enrollment Data (CMS) US HIGH Enrollment numbers by plan and county for Medicare Advantage. Play 1
State Insurance Department Filings US MEDIUM Insurance company rate filings, market conduct exams, and complaints. Play 1